MyDD :: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona!

Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona!

by AsiansVote, Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:17:41 PM EST

Last week, Markos argued that now's the time to press our advantage and "crush the spirits" of the conservative movement by delivering "a defeat worse than they ever imagined." I humbly suggest that as part of the program, it's time to poll Arizona and prove the theory that McCain's home state only supports him by single digits. It's time to move Arizona from "likely" to "lean," give a leg up to Democratic challenger Bob Lord in AZ-03, and saddle the McCain campaign yet another embarrassment to spin in the waning days of the election.

And, who knows, the results of an Arizona poll might just surprise even us...

Back in August, the Mason-Dixon poll made headlines by showing McCain up only six points in Arizona. But post-RNC, three polls gave McCain double digit leads, with an ASU outlier from 9/25-28/09 giving McCain a seven point edge [Pollster].

But the state hasn't been polled since September 29. And just to refresh, here's a bit of what's happened since then:

October 2 - Vice Presidential debate. Biden wins every snap poll.
October 4 - Palin starts Ayers attacks ("palling around with terrorists")
October 6 - McCain/Palin supporters begin yelling "Kill him" and "Terrorist" at rallies
October 6 - Dow drops 370 points
October 7 - Presidential debate ("That One"). Obama wins every snap poll.
October 9 - Dow drops nearly 700 points
October 10 - Troopergate report finds Palin abused power, violated ethics law.

Etcetera etcetera. Meanwhile, Obama has surged to over 50 percent in most national polls; come close to locking down New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia; and turned Nevada, West Virginia, and North Carolina into swing states.

Finally, here are three indications that McCain could be in particular trouble in Arizona:

As Kos has noted, AZ-03 has moved within striking range for Democratic challenger Bob Lord.

As ourhispanicvoices notes, Latinos in neighboring states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are turning towards Obama three to one over McCain.

As thereisnospoon notes, McCain's tanking in the Southwest may stem largely from Latino disgust with negative campaigning. And Latinos are a big part of the Arizona electorate. According to the Pew Research Center [pdf], "17% of eligible voters in Arizona are Latinos, the fourth-largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally behind New Mexico with 38%, Texas with 25% and California with 23%."

And this is all anecdotal, but here's a Seattle Post-Intelligencer reprint of an Economist article entitled "Why Arizonans Dislike McCain."

Poll, baby, poll!

Poll

Votes: 17
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: John McCain, Arizona, poll, Latinos, Hispanics (all tags)

Permalink :: 5 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona! (none / 0)

I agree... and for 1 added benefit. Humiliating Defeat will help Janet Neapolitano run for McCain's seat in 2010... whether he runs for Re-election or not.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 01:20:09 PM EST

Re: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona! (none / 0)

I was sorta wondering what Janet was going to do after her term expires. She'd make a great Senator.

Change has come to America.

by the mystical vortexes of sedona on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 02:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona! (1.50 / 2)

Markos. Really, Next to his the darkered clip post. Markos i dont think HRC is a real democrat. Markos who multiple called HRC an Bill Clinton racist. Markos is nothing more than a hate filled, ##$, $$$, etc.

Sorry but this HRC supporter will NEVER forgive his conduct during the primary. He is no different that Hannity, BIllO and the rest of the hate mongers.

davi

by giusd on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 02:12:34 PM EST

Re: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona! (none / 0)

Arizona split 45/55 in '04. Purple states have trended Democratic about 1% per year to my observations. So, 49/51 is about the middle expectation I hold for the split there.

If Obama wins, good, but putting the state into or on the brink to Blue State status on the rest of the ballot is better. I'm very tired of the crap Republicans that have been in control in the Southwest for far too long. Shadegg is only a minor bit of the problem at this point to me, frankly...getting majorities in the state legislatures in AZ and NV is key to real Blue quality and choking off the seemingly eternal Republican greed and rot and unwillingness to improve the quality of life.

There is already some good news downticket, thought. A major local Republican consultant (though maybe their local version of Dick Morris) by name of Nathan Sproul has written 2-3 pieces in the Arizona Republic that the state House of Representatives (33R/27D) can tip Democratic this year. According to him local Republicans should be in panic for their majority there- Democrats are energized, organized, and hard at work registering voters this year. (Hopefully AZ D's also get closer to majority in the state Senate, but that's really a project for the '10 election cycle.)

by killjoy on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 03:01:11 PM EST

Re: Crush their Spirits: Poll Arizona! (none / 0)

Speaking of Dick Morris, he already sees AZ as light blue. Check out his map (done for Newsmax - WTF is he doing writing for Newsmax).

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo _code=2A89-1

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 03:31:58 PM EST

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